Post-Assad Syria: A Nation in Transition and Recovery

The day after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, the transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir moved quickly to ensure the continuity of essential services. 

Its priority was to address the shortages affecting the population, improving living conditions and overcoming the hardships left in the wake of the ousted regime.

Since the military operations administration entered Damascus on December 8, 2024, Syrian provinces were reopened to one another, after years of being fragmented by security checkpoints controlled by the fleeing al-Assad regime's intelligence, which had restricted all movement and trade.

Accelerating Recovery

It was striking that the areas controlled by Syrian opposition forces in northwestern Syria had quickly become a vital “land bridge,” connecting cities and towns previously under the control of the ousted al-Assad regime with much-needed services.

The Syrian Civil Defence, known as the "White Helmets," immediately mobilized to restore essential services, from repairing power grids to clearing roads.

Meanwhile, aid organizations operating in opposition-held areas took on the task of distributing free bread and essential foodstuffs across Syrian provinces, offering much-needed relief to local communities.

Syria’s provinces also benefited from an abundance of fuel in northwestern regions, which helped alleviate the severe shortages of gasoline and diesel that had plagued residents in cities and towns before al-Assad’s fall.

The transitional government took swift action to restart state institutions, calling on civil servants to return to their posts and resume their work.

Syria’s universities reopened their doors, with students returning to their studies. Professors encouraged their pupils to focus on their education, free from any further obstacles.

Perhaps most notably, the management of Damascus and Aleppo international airports worked around the clock to ensure local operations resumed as a first step, before planning for international flights.

On December 18, 2024, Damascus International Airport successfully launched its first domestic flight under the Syrian Arab Airlines, marking a significant step towards normalization. 

The flight connected the capital to Aleppo, further symbolising the country’s recovery from years of war.

In many provinces, Syrian citizens led collective initiatives to clean streets, remove portraits of al-Assad’s family, and scrub slogans from the walls of schools and government buildings. 

These actions served as a powerful symbol of the swift transition into a new era for Syria.

Damascus' markets saw an unprecedented surge in activity on the second day after al-Assad’s escape to Russia and the announcement of his regime’s collapse by the military operations administration, which had led a military campaign dubbed "Deterring Aggression" on November 27, 2024.

Following the fall of al-Assad’s regime, concerns were raised about Syria's wheat stockpiles and the potential difficulty in providing bread to the population. 

However, the ousted regime’s former trade minister, Louay Imad al-Din al-Munjed, sought to allay fears in a televised statement just hours after al-Assad's flight. 

"Our wheat reserves are sufficient for an entire year, while flour stocks will last for three months," al-Munjed said, adding that basic goods reserves would sustain the country for six months.

The transitional government has swiftly addressed logistical challenges regarding the transportation of vegetables, fruits, and other essential goods between Syrian regions, facilitating smoother movement to prevent any monopolization of products or price hikes.

Meanwhile, the acting Syrian Minister of Agriculture, Mohammad Taha al-Ahmad, announced that the ministry had devised a plan to meet the country’s needs for flour and vegetables, alongside offering loans to farmers.

The agricultural sector remains a cornerstone of Syria’s economy, providing employment for a significant portion of the population, particularly in rural areas.

In an interview with the opposition-run Syria TV on December 17, al-Ahmad emphasized that despite the sector’s dire conditions, the ministry had put strategies in place to meet these critical needs.

One notable example of efforts to remove barriers to transactions for Syrians from all regions is the acceptance of identity cards issued by former opposition areas, which differ from those issued under the regime of the ousted al-Assad.

For instance, the identity card from opposition-held areas has enabled Syrians to immediately activate mobile phone lines in the capital, Damascus.

Economic Stabilization Efforts

The Central Bank of Syria announced the reactivation of ATMs and the introduction of electronic payment services.

In a statement issued on December 18, the bank urged Syrians to cooperate with financial institutions to ensure the legal entitlements of government employees were processed.

The Central Bank also directed banks across the country to monitor and regulate withdrawal operations, describing it as a temporary measure in response to recent economic fluctuations.

In a significant move to restore confidence in the currency, the Central Bank of Syria introduced a unified official exchange rate for the national currency against foreign currencies. 

The new policy, designed to stabilize the markets, set the official rate at 12,500 Syrian pounds to the U.S. dollar, and 13,300 pounds to the euro, according to the bank’s first statement since the regime's collapse on December 16.

The Syrian pound has seen a dramatic decline in value since early 2011, when it stood at around 50 pounds to the dollar, reflecting the severe impact of the prolonged conflict on the country’s economy.

Residents have noted a fairer distribution of electricity across Syrian cities, a stark contrast to the years when al-Assad’s regime punished the population, justifying frequent power cuts with claims of fuel shortages for power plants.

In Aleppo, Syria’s economic capital, drinking water began to gradually return to some neighbourhoods on December 18, 2024, after a days-long interruption caused by power failures at the al-Khafsah and al-Babiri pumping stations in the eastern countryside of the province.

“The vault of Syria's central bank holds nearly 26 tons of gold, the same amount it had at the start of its bloody civil war in 2011,” according to Reuters.

The agency, citing four informed sources on December 16, 2024, reported that Damascus now possesses only a small amount of foreign currency reserves.

The World Gold Council noted that Syria's gold reserves stood at 25.8 tons in June 2011, according to data from the central bank. 

Based on current market prices, Reuters calculated that the gold is worth approximately “$2.2 billion.”

“The central bank's foreign exchange reserves amount, however, to just around $200 million in cash, one of the sources told Reuters, while another said the U.S. dollar reserves were in the hundreds of millions.”

“While not all reserves would be held in cash, the drop is substantial compared with before the war. At the end of 2011, Syria's central bank reported $14 billion in foreign reserves, according to the International Monetary Fund. In 2010, the IMF had estimated Syria's foreign reserves to stand at $18.5 billion.”

Current and former Syrian officials revealed to Reuters that nearly all dollar reserves have been depleted, as al-Assad’s regime used them to fund food, fuel, and its ongoing war against the Syrian people.

One source explained that the central bank’s vault is bomb-resistant and requires three separate keys, each held by a different person, along with a complex code to unlock it.

However, on December 15, 2024, interim Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir stated in a press briefing that the central bank’s vaults only contained Syrian pounds, with no liquidity in foreign currencies. 

He added that the government was still in the process of gathering data on loans and bonds.

Al-Bashir described the country’s financial situation as "dire," highlighting the severe collapse of the Syrian economy during Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule.

Despite these challenges, the Central Bank of Syria, a large white building in the heart of Damascus, fully resumed operations on December 15. 

The bank was packed with employees, people seeking U.S. dollars, and others carrying bags full of Syrian pounds.

A source revealed that the central bank could currently rely on its reserves of Syrian pounds, which are worth several hundred million dollars, in addition to its limited dollar reserves.

In a positive sign of stability, there have been no security clashes between opposition factions and remnants of al-Assad’s regime or its militias, with some beginning to hand over their weapons.

This came as the military operations administration opened centres in cities where al-Assad’s officers and soldiers could surrender their weapons, undergo security settlements, and receive new identification cards.

Meanwhile, civilian movement across Syria, from north to south, continues smoothly and without any major obstacles.

Positive Indicators Amid Transition

In this context, Syrian journalist Tammam Saymoua, based in Damascus, told Al-Estiklal that he had been able to travel freely across several provinces following the fall of al-Assad’s regime.

He noted that “the overall situation in Syria is relatively stable, showing positive signs, as basic goods are available across all provinces.”

However, he pointed out a “shortage of liquidity in Syrian pounds among the population, which is natural given the economic difficulties that prevailed before the fall of al-Assad.”

Saymoua also highlighted that “security has been largely restored, despite some concerns in specific areas,” referring to neighborhoods in Homs still inhabited by remnants of the old regime.

He remarked that “people are beginning to breathe easier, returning to their work, businesses, and professional activities.”

“The markets in Damascus are experiencing significant commercial activity, better than before, especially with the return of civil servants to their positions, the reopening of government institutions, schools, and universities, and the improvement of financial remittances from Syrians abroad to their relatives back home,” Saymoua added.

On December 18, 2024, the Kurdish Self-Administration in northeastern Syria announced a decision to abolish customs duties and taxes on trade between its regions and the rest of Syria.

According to Al-Estiklal, this move, the administration stated, underscores its “commitment to the unity of Syrian territory” and is also a response to the “current changes following the fall of the previous Syrian regime.”

According to Reuters, in terms of cross-border trade, Jordan’s Minister of Industry and Trade and Supply, Yarub Qudah, confirmed on December 17, 2024, that “Jordanian trucks would be allowed to return via the crossing, known as the Jaber crossing on the Jordanian side, while no one would be allowed to cross into Syria.” 

He told the Jordan News Agency that this step would “facilitate the flow of goods and freight traffic across the border.”

Meanwhile, the Jordanian Civil Aviation Regulatory Commission stated that air traffic between Amman and Damascus will resume soon, but this is contingent on developments and the readiness of the airport to handle flights.

Meanwhile, Turkish Airlines announced on December 18 that, for the first time in 13 years, it had included Aleppo and Damascus international airports in its destinations from Istanbul, signaling the setting of flight schedules and timings.

Turkey, a neighboring country to Syria and located near Europe, serves as a key hub for travelers from European countries, particularly Syrians wishing to return to their homeland.

The new Syrian administration has called for the lifting of international sanctions to revitalize the economy, rebuild cities devastated by al-Assad's military machine with the help of Russia and Iran, and encourage the return of millions of Syrian refugees.