Who Decides on War in Gaza After Dissolution of Israeli War Cabinet?

Despite the assassination of several top Hamas leaders, divisions within “Israel” persist over the decision to continue the aggression in Gaza, which has been ongoing since October 2023.

The rifts have deepened, and uncertainty has taken hold, especially after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unannounced dissolution of the war cabinet in June 2024.

Ongoing Divisions

The rifts and tensions within the Israeli Occupation persist, despite the assassination of several key Hamas leaders. The Israeli army killed the political bureau chief of the Palestinian Resistance Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, followed by the martyrdom of the movement's deputy leader, Saleh al-Arouri, in an airstrike on Beirut.

Later, Hamas’s political bureau chief Yahya Sinwar was killed on October 16 while resisting the Israeli army assault in Rafah, southern Gaza, fueling speculation that a resolution to halt the offensive on the Strip and finalize a prisoner exchange deal might be within reach.

Yet, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several hardline ministers continue to threaten government dissolution if a deal moves forward, while advocating for the continuation of the war, with calls to reoccupy Gaza and “dismantle” Hamas completely.

In October 2024, following Sinwar's death—whom Netanyahu had claimed stood in the way of a deal—discussions resumed in Egypt and Qatar about a potential resolution.

The negotiations are focused on reaching a short-term agreement to exchange some prisoners without a full ceasefire or withdrawal from Gaza, a stance Hamas rejects.

There are now two main factions within “Israel.” One faction, led by War Minister Yoav Gallant, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Israeli War Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and Mossad chief David Barnea, argues that the complete elimination of Hamas is unrealistic. 

They advocate presenting the recent “achievements,” including the deaths of Haniyeh, Sinwar, and other Hamas leaders, to the public and concluding the war.

This group is pushing for a deal, warning of further escalation in the West Bank while seeking to shift the army focus to Lebanon, aiming to keep Hezbollah away from the borders and allowing Israeli settlers in the north to return to “their homes.”

Former war cabinet members Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot were part of this faction but resigned due to Netanyahu’s delays in securing a prisoner exchange deal and his lack of a post-war strategy for Gaza.

After Gantz’s resignation, Netanyahu disbanded the war cabinet, transferring decision-making to the smaller security cabinet, but progress remains stalled. Netanyahu and his hardline ministers are still in control, with officials claiming the prime minister will hold smaller forums for sensitive matters.

The second faction, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, insists on continuing the war and reoccupying Gaza.

Tensions within the Israeli war cabinet surfaced early, with debates over whether “Israel” should negotiate to end the war and secure the release of prisoners, and who should govern Gaza once the Israeli genocide concludes.

Ben-Gvir and Bar

The power struggles persist, even with the resumption of negotiations in October 2024, most recently between Itamar Ben-Gvir and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar.

Bar, who is responsible for negotiating with Egyptian intelligence regarding the issue of Israeli prisoners in Gaza, is increasingly losing influence in the domestic political arena, to the point that he is considering resignation, according to Intelligence Online.

Bar is struggling to maintain his influence in “Tel Aviv,” despite being sent to Cairo on October 20 for talks with newly appointed Egyptian Intelligence Director, Hassan Mahmoud Rashad.

Sources from the French magazine reveal that Bar feels sidelined due to mounting disagreements with National Security Minister Ben-Gvir within the Israeli security cabinet.

Bar’s most recent visit to Cairo marked his second trip that month, following an earlier visit on October 14 to meet with former head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, now an advisor to the head of the Egyptian regime Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

During both visits, Bar sought to revive negotiations on the issue of Israeli prisoners and a potential ceasefire in Gaza. However, he returned to Tel Aviv without significant progress, in line with Netanyahu's instructions during his first trip.

On his second visit, Bar hoped to leverage the death of Yahya Sinwar to broker a prisoner swap, but so far, there has been no breakthrough.

Upon returning from Egypt, Bar planned to present a proposed deal to the Israeli security cabinet, which has had decision-making authority over the war since Netanyahu disbanded the war cabinet. However, Ben-Gvir blocked him from doing so.

Despite receiving support from War Minister Yoav Gallant, Israeli War Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and Mossad Director David Barnea, Bar continues to face growing ideological and personal friction with Ben-Gvir, who has become a key figure in Netanyahu's coalition government.

Amid these tensions, in August 2024, Bar sent a letter to Netanyahu and other ministers protesting Ben-Gvir's repeated visits to the al-Aqsa Mosque and his leniency toward Israeli settlers' actions in the West Bank.

The Israeli army and security establishment are increasingly worried about Ben-Gvir's policies at al-Aqsa, fearing they could escalate tensions within “Israel,” especially as the situations in Gaza and Lebanon remain unstable.

Ben-Gvir, who oversees the Israeli police, has faced significant criticism for his failure to coordinate effectively with Shin Bet in the field.

The criticism escalated following his appointment of his assistant, Avishai Mualem, as head of the police investigations and intelligence division. Sources suggest Mualem no longer addresses settler violations based on Shin Bet intelligence.

Despite these challenges, Bar still has Netanyahu's backing and joined him on a visit to Shin Bet headquarters on October 15. However, Bar is considering resignation, especially due to his waning influence within the security cabinet.

Netanyahu and Gallant

In the face of Yoav Gallant's increasingly divergent views from Netanyahu and several of his ministers, reports from Hebrew media began circulating months ago about Netanyahu's consideration of dismissing his war minister and replacing him with Gideon Sa'ar.

Sa'ar, a former senior figure in Netanyahu's Likud party, had broken away from the party at the end of 2020 due to disagreements with Netanyahu.

However, Netanyahu was reluctant to dismiss his war minister amid a two-front war, which is why he appointed Sa'ar as a minister without portfolio in late September 2024 to garner his support.

The tensions between Gallant and Netanyahu reached a breaking point due to the latter insistence on maintaining control over the Philadelphia Corridor, the border area between Gaza and Egypt, and his obstruction of a prisoner swap deal, which fueled concerns about Gallant's dismissal.

In 2023, Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Gallant after he called for a delay in the highly controversial judicial reform plan. The move sparked widespread protests and drew strong condemnation from the U.S., forcing the Israeli Prime Minister to backtrack on his decision.

According to The Times of Israel, Sa'ar's inclusion in the government reduces the potential impact of threats from Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the religious zionism party Otzma Yehudit, who has six seats in the Knesset, to bring down the government if certain demands are met.

Sa'ar's party now holds four seats in the Knesset, giving the current government 68 votes in the parliament, strengthening its position amid opposition calls for resignation and early elections.

Haaretz suggested that Sa'ar is likely to support a proposed law that would grant exemptions for the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli military.

Gallant had opposed voting in favor of the bill, which was strongly supported by the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, unless it was approved by Benny Gantz’s National Unity party.

In July 2024, the Supreme Court of “Israel” ruled that all Israelis, including the ultra-Orthodox, must serve in the army.

Approving the bill, which the opposition calls the draft dodging law, would grant exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox from mandatory army service.

Sa'ar had been part of the emergency government formed at the start of the war on Gaza but withdrew in March 2024 after not being included in the war cabinet at that time.

Where to?

In addition to the ministers and officials, the Israeli army has also entered the fray. In October 2024, 130 active-duty and reserve soldiers signed a letter stating that they would refuse to continue their service unless Netanyahu sought an agreement for the release of prisoners.

Mairav Zonszein, the senior Israeli analyst for the International Crisis Group, said that the divisions in the country’s war cabinet are creating a kind of paralysis that is preventing the government from executing an effective strategy. 

That, she said, could end with “Israel” reoccupying the Gaza Strip, much as it occupied southern Lebanon for 15 years from the 1980s. “There is no exit strategy.”

This view is shared by Gallant and Gantz, who have previously stated that Netanyahu's failure to create an alternative to Hamas would eventually lead the army to “reoccupy Gaza,” which would be dangerous for the Jewish state.

In contrast, Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized that instead of focusing on the so-called “post-war issues,” the army should focus its efforts “on defeating what remained of Hamas.”

Netanyahu has consistently opposed any involvement from the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank in Gaza, a territory it controlled until Hamas took power in 2007.

Gallant is likely driven by a mix of political and military calculations when he publicly challenges Netanyahu for refusing to discuss plans for a day after, Zonszein said.

“I think he feels a responsibility toward sending 20-year-olds on a mission that is clearly failing,” she said.

The disagreements between war leaders over the fate of prisoners have translated into divisions within Israeli society, pointing to a deeper rift.

After a year of Israeli genocide in Gaza and escalating brutality in the West Bank, the entire region now teeters on the edge of a catastrophic conflict.

A year after the ongoing Israeli Occupation's genocide in Gaza, the region has become a tinderbox, and “Israel” itself is in the grips of a deep economic malaise and a profound social and political crisis, noted Counterfire.

“Israeli political leaders are forging ahead with no coherent exit strategy, in the face of resistance they can’t subdue and a wave of international revulsion that continues to grow.”

“Israel’s ruthlessness is beyond dispute and it plays a role that is massively dangerous. At the same time, however, the Zionist state is deeply unstable and its future is highly uncertain,” Counterfire concluded.

Bloomberg also said in May 2024 that “until the war ends and there’s clarity over what happens to Gaza, Israel’s internal divisions will likely fester and its global standing worsen.”